I spent a relatively politics-free weekend (nice for a change), but in the back of my mind, I was thinking with a sense of morbid curiosity about what we're about to experience starting in about two weeks, given that the Illinois primary is so ridiculously early (Feb. 2nd).
After the first of the year, we're going to have little over 30 days for dozens and dozens of candidates all vying for public office to make themselves and their positions known to voters. Through radio, TV, direct mail, social networking, and just about every other medium you can think of (old-fashioned billboards, anyone?), we are all going to be inundated with the smiling faces of these clean-cut, American-as-apple-pie candidates trying to worm their way into your hearts and living rooms to get you to come out and "VOTE!" Of course, some of those pictures may be of scowling candidates and nasty messages if the ads are negative, which many of them will be. Just look at the stuff being put out by Alexi Giannouias and David Hoffman as they go toe-to-toe for the Dem nomination for U.S. Senate.
Of course, many candidates are not waiting for the beginning of the new year to push their message (I've already been carpet-bombed by the Bob Dold campaign with one-page mailers in my mailbox), but conventional wisdom holds that average voters are simply not going to be engaged until after we get past New Year's Day.
The conundrum- save everything you have for when the voters will start paying attention (but risked being drowned out by the torrent of mailings and evening news ads) or start early and spend a significant amount of your war chest now, when the voters might not be focused, but will be less inundated. ???
Looks like Bob Dold is the first GOP candidate to announce a network TV ad. The ad will begin running today on Fox News. The commercial was produced by Ken Kurson of Jamestown Associates. It's not clear how much Dold is spending nor how often this will run, but I've pinged the Dold campaign to find out. The Chicago media market, of course, is extremely expensive.
(UPDATED 1:40 p.m.) I just called Beth Coulson's campaign to get their reaction, and while they say they fully plan to be up on TV and will have plenty of resources, they would not tell me when or how big they will hit the airwaves.
(UPDATED x2: 2:00 p.m.) Here's an article from The Hill.
From a Dold press release:
Dold For Congress Launches First Television Ad
The campaign of Republican Robert Dold, Congressional candidate for Illinois’ 10th District, launched their first television ad Thursday. The 30-second spot, called “Economy,” makes the case for why Dold is the clear choice to represent the 10th District of Illinois in Congress. The television ad will air during primetime on the top-rated cable stations.
“I’ve been running a grassroots campaign across the 10th District in an effort to reach out to voters and spread my message of bringing small business common sense to Washington, Dold said. He continued, “The television ad will supplement our campaign by reaching a larger part of the voting population.”
Dold is the only candidate who has been able to garner strong grassroots support throughout the district, where he has won the endorsements of the New Trier, Elk Grove and Vernon Township Republican Organizations.
Vernon Hills Trustee Cindy Hebda, who is running for the GOP nomination in the 59th Legislative District, today easily survived a challenge to her petitions that was filed by the Madigan Democrats (specifically Steven Rosenzweig, who is chairman of the Vernon Township Democrats).
We first noted this back in November, and criticized the Dems for interfering in a GOP primary. So, we are pleased that the Dem fishing expedition has been soundly rejected by the State Board of Elections. In fact, although the hearing officer had recommended that Hebda be kicked off the ballot, apparently the SBE counsel disagreed, and the vote today by the SBE itself (which is split 4-4 among Dems and Republicans) voted an astounding 7-1 in favor of keeping Hebda on the ballot.
This sets up a three-way primary battle between Hebda, second-time candidate attorney Dan Sugrue, and businessman Mohan Manian.
The spot is the next-best thing to an open seat and is a pick-up opportunity for the GOP, since the current incumbent, Carol Sente, was appointed to the office to fill the shoes left by retiring State Rep. Kathy Ryg. Sente is facing a stiff primary challenge from Buffalo Grove Mayor Elliot Hartstein.
So, campers, this is definitely shaping up to be one to watch. Stay tuned.
Our friends at Illinois Review are reporting that Winnetka attorney (and former staffer for retired Congressman John Porter) Bill Cadigan is withdrawing from the IL-10 race.
We first profiled Bill Cadigan way back here. Bill is apparently leaving due to insufficient financial resources, which is a shame, as everyone that met Bill seems to agree that he is a solid candidate and good material--definitely with the potential to be a rising star in the IL GOP if he chooses to remain in politics.
Good luck, Bill, and we hope you will continue to stay involved.
I don't know if Cadigan intends to specifically throw his support behind any other candidate, but we'll see. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Cadigan'swithdrawl and a thinning field will help the remaining male candidates (Bob Dold, Arie Friedman, Dick Green, and Paul Hamann) against State Rep. Beth Coulson, the only remaining female GOP contender.
UPDATED 12/17/09 7:00 a.m.: Mick Zawislak of the Daily Herald has an article on Cadigan'swithdrawal from the IL-10 race. Per Mick:
Cadigan said he hasn't decided which of the other candidates he may support.
"I'm withdrawing from the race, not withdrawing from the candidates and causes I think will move the country ahead," he said.
JeffBerkowitz of Public Affairs also notes Cadigan's surprise move, and takes the opportunity to note the up-and-coming candidacy of pediatric physician and veteran navy helicopter pilot Arie Friedman.
Friedman has been making a bit of a splash around the Republican primary circuit, but his biggest enemy is time. Since Friedman got in late, we haven't had a chance to profile him here, but we'll try to do so soon.
Finally, Lynn Stiefel of the Pioneer Press has been doing a series of profile articles on the IL-10 candidates on both sides. Read here profile on State Rep Beth Coulsonhere.
As we reported late Sunday, recent polling by the Chicago Tribune of 600 likely Republican primary voters showed Mark Kirk with a huge lead over the other GOP primary contenders in the U.S. Senate race -- Kirk with 41% compared to 13% for all other candidates combined. No one, not even Patrick Hughes (who has claimed to be the only candidate that can beat Kirk) broke more than 3%.
With less than two months left, and no appreciable resources among the other candidates, compared to Kirk's millions in campaign funds, most other news sources, even Democratic ones, seem to agree that this is pretty much over... probably to their dismay, as I think most on the left would have relished the opportunity to run against a political unknown with polarized political views, rather than the much more moderate and experienced Kirk. Daily Koslamented that Mark Kirk's lead is "nearly insurmountable" over Patrick Hughes "the supposed darling of the tea-party right," while the Swing State Project blog said:
For the GOP, the most notable number may be that Patrick Hughes, who's gotten all the buzz as the guy behind whom all the right-wingers are coalescing, is actually getting nowhere at all. Hughes is at 3, tied with virtually unknown Kathleen Thomas (a former school board member from Springfield).
WGN News had a story on the race yesterday. The sound quality on this clip isn't the best, and when I first heard it, I thought the announcer said "5'2" Congressman Mark Kirk is miles in front of the primary Republican pack." I thought, Mark's not a tall man, but surely he's not just 5'2". Of course, the announcer actually said "five term" Congressman Mark Kirk, but that made me do an initial double-take. ;-)
Meanwhile, Pat Hughes and Mark Kirk both appeared in front of the Tribune editorial Board yesterday. The article, by Rick Pearson of the Tribune, was not overly detailed, but you could tell that Pat, it seems, came across as a very angry man, who is fighting a battle based on what he perceives as party purity. Kirk, on the other hand, seeks to be the best representative for the people of Illinois, even if that means (heresy!) reaching out to independents and some reasonable Democrats (after all, there must be some).
"Are we going to be the party of the principles of Ronald Reagan, which is limited government, low taxes and our traditional social values and a strong national defense? Or are we going to be the party of Arlen Specter and Olympia Snowe and the policies of Barack Obama?" Hughes said. Specter is a Pennsylvania Republican senator turned Democrat, and Snowe is a Republican senator from Maine who often votes with Democrats.
But Kirk maintained he would do a better job for the state by "building a coalition of Republicans, independents and some Democrats" concerned about debt, increasing taxes and regulation. Kirk said Republicans should want someone "who not just wins the primary ... (but) actually goes on and wins the general election" for the first time since Sen. Peter Fitzgerald in 1998.
Well, unfortunately here is another example of political inexperience at work. One way to definitely NOT get a favorable view from an editorial board (especially the Trib) is to come across as an angry party zealot who is more concerned with the doctrine of his political party than helping the citizens of Illinois. It's nice that Pat feels very passionately about his mission to help reform the Republican party into whatever he thinks it should be, but a newspaper board, much like the common citizen of Illinois, isn't going to give a rat's ass about how pure a party soldier you are. They want to know what you will DO to address issues like jobs, Iran, health care reform, nuclear weapons, etc., etc.
But if you want to talk about being a good Republican, I was thinking this morning about all of the work and support that Kirk has done over the years, which we have witnessed firsthand here in Lake County, in supporting other Republican candidates (yes, even very conservative ones like Dan Sugrue) and carrying the water for the elephant, as we like to say. As far as I know, Pat Hughes only recently discovered what he sees as an opportunity in politics, and did not spend the last 10 years knocking on doors, attending political rallies, fighting for just causes, and trying to make a positive difference for the people of the state. That would be Mark Kirk, my friends.
The Chicago Tribune has released a poll showing fifth term Congressman Mark Kirk of the 10th District with a commanding lead over all other GOP candidates in the race for U.S. Senate. The new poll, which was taken between Dec. 2 through Dec. 8 of 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows Kirk with 41%, with his nearest challengers, Kathleen Thomas of Springfield and Patrick Hughes of Hinsdale, both at only 3%. Bringing up the rear are John Arrington and Andy Martin, each with 2%, and Donald Lowry and Robert Zadek, each with 1%, with 1% voting for 'someone else.' 46% are undecided.
The Trib poll also shows State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias with a good lead (31%) over his nearest opponents, Cheryle Jackson (17%) and David Hoffman (9%), but that race is considerably tighter than the GOP primary.
Interestingly, my law school chum Pat Hughes has been campaigning as the only candidate that can beat Kirk in the primary, but these results don't seem to back up that contention--either in terms of making this a race, or even standing out from the pack of also-rans. Kathleen Thomas, an unknown school board member from Springfield, appears to be doing at least as well. But both are in the basement compared to Kirk.
Pat put a lot of effort into wooing the endorsement of Senator Jim DeMint of the Senate Conservatives Fund but, thus far, DeMint has not endorsed. An article in the American Spectator suggested that DeMint had given up on Hughes, but DeMint's camp stated that he is still "monitoring" the race and hasn't yet decided whether to bet on Hughes. Well, given these poll results, that bet just became a bit more of a long-shot.
Even if a DeMint endorsement eventually came through for Hughes, Kirk has had the support of many other conservative Republican leaders for some time (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority leader, who is as conservative as DeMint, comes to mind), and most commentators seem to agree that Kirk's lead is safe. Pat has been covering the state trying to garner grassroots endorsements, but also seems to be being beaten handily in the ground war as well (at the last count, Kirk had 15 township endorsements, Pat had 4).
DeMint says "We believe it is too early to count Hughes out." Um, well, with less than 60 days to go before the primary, and with the holidays mixed in, there's very little time for "monitoring" of this race before throwing in or not; it's been full speed ahead for some time now, and if the numbers haven't moved out of the cellar for Kirk's opponents (Hughes or anyone else), it's not likely they will--certainly not in time to make any difference.
Mark Kirk for U.S. Senate Mark Curran for Lake County Sheriff Willard Helander for Lake County Clerk Bob Skidmore for Lake County Treasurer Roycealee Wood for Superintendent of Schools Suzi Schmidt for State Senate (31st Dist.) Ed Sullivan, Jr. for 51st Legislative Dist. Mark Beaubien, Jr. for 52nd Legislative Dist. Dan Sugrue for 59th Legislative Dist. JoAnne Osmond for 61st Legislative Dist. Sandy Cole for 62nd Legislative Dist. Aaron Lawlor for Lake County Board (Dist. 18) Ann Maine for Lake County Board (Dist. 21) Mary Schostok for Appellate Court Mary Ann Jorgensen for Appellate Court Jorge Ortiz for Circuit Judge Diane Winter for Circuit Judge Wally Dunn for Circuit Judge
Just call me Team America, World Police. "TA" for short. (No relation to the movie, except that I liked the phrase.) I'm a lawyer (but a nice guy nevertheless), family man, moderate Republican and active in local politics, but someone who tries to keep an open mind and a healthy respect for differing views. While I may disagree with what you say, I will defend to the death your right to say it.
Merry Christmas to all those who are celebrating today!
Vernon Hills Trustee Cindy Hebda, who is running for the GOP nomination in the 59th Legislative District, today easily survived a challenge to her petitions that was filed by the Madigan Democrats (specifically Steven Rosenzweig, who is chairman of the Vernon Township Democrats).
Our friends at Illinois Review are reporting that Winnetka attorney (and former staffer for retired Congressman John Porter) Bill Cadigan is withdrawing from the IL-10 race.
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